Methodology

Two kinds of information appear on this site. Facts are verifiable records: names, dates of birth, appointment and departure dates, clubs, competitions and match records. Analysis is GafferLens interpretation: GafferScore, tactical ratings, style descriptors, tactical verdicts, rankings and simulations.

Analysis is labelled wherever it appears and carries a confidence level. A rating is never presented as a measured fact.

A stable, career-weighted view: sustained results, trophies, level of competition and longevity. It moves slowly and is not driven by a single run of matches.

• Results vs expectation20%
• Attacking performance12.5%
• Defensive performance12.5%
• Tactical control10%
• League / competition strength8%
• Player development8%
• Tactical adaptability7%
• Big-game performance7%
• Recent performance5%
• Experience5%
• Trophy achievement5%

A dynamic view of the current moment: results, performance level and momentum across the last ten competitive matches, recency weighted.

• Recent results35%
• Performance vs expectation20%
• Opponent strength15%
• Attacking performance10%
• Defensive performance10%
• Underlying performance / control10%

Form is measured over the most recent competitive matches in the manager's current job only. It is never blended with career record, and a manager who has just been appointed carries a developing sample rather than an inherited score.

Tactical ratings describe emphasis, not quality of execution: a high pressing rating means the team presses often and high, not that the press is always successful. Simulations are illustrative reconstructions of a manager's stated patterns — they are animations of an idea, not replays of specific matches.

GafferLens does not claim to measure performance, predict appointments, or reproduce official competition data. Where a value cannot be supported by held data, the site says so rather than filling the gap.

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